Markets
Macro
Markets performed exceptionally well over the past week as investors feel confident that geopolitical tensions are starting to relax. Oil prices fell, demonstrating this sentiment. Despite this, overall economic data and Fed commentary point towards a more cautious outlook, still aiming for a soft landing with potential rate cuts this year.
Market Intel
Oil Prices Fall?
The Middle Eastern conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated after the U.S decided to step in. The U.S launched an attack on 3 nuclear development sites across Iran. These attacks have been said to set back their nuclear program by roughly 3-6 months. The strikes sealed off entrances but failed to damage underground facilities. Iran retaliated by l…
Iran's Economic Retaliation
Tensions in the Middle East escalated this week as Iran’s parliament voted in favor of closing the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage that handles nearly 20% of the world’s oil shipments. The decision still lies with Iran’s top leadership and the vote doesn’t guarantee closure, however it’s enough to rattle global markets.
M&A Expected to Accelerate
U.S. mergers and acquisitions are expected to see momentum over the next 12 months. The first half of 2025 brought mixed results as deal activity slowed by around 8% since May, but total deal spending is still close to 40%. However, 15 of 21 sectors saw deal declines compared to last year, meaning the bar for a rebound is low.
Current Affairs
NYC Democratic Primary
33-year-old Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani claimed victory in the New York City Democratic mayoral primary, defeating former governor Andrew Cuomo. The primary election took place on June 24, 2025, under the city's ranked-choice voting system, with a turnout of roughly 1.1 million voters, over ⅓ of registered democrats.
Israel and Iran Agree to Ceasefire
The Israel-Iran conflict that began in June of this year has reached a truce. The surprise attack by Israel on Iranian nuclear sites started off the conflict on June 13th, and it quickly escalated to flurries of missiles being launched by both nations.
News
More From the Week
Cooper Flagg was selected as the #1 pick by the Mavericks, being the 2nd youngest ever top pick.
NATO allies agree to increase their defense spending from 2% to 5% of total GDP by 2035.
The dollar fell to a 3-year low yesterday due to overall economic uncertainty and Trump’s disapproval of Powell’s rate cut decisions..
Read the full stories and more at theweeklyyield.com.