June Employment Data

The June 2025 U.S jobs report delivered stronger-than-expected results, suggesting that key parts of the labor market are staying resilient in times of uncertainty. Employers added 147,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations of 106,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, past the 4.3% forecast. The unemployment rate is substantially lower in comparison to the previous decade. Most job gains came from state governments and healthcare, while the federal government has continued its decline. Labor force participation is steady at 62.3% and the 12-month average for job creation is steady at around 146,000 jobs per month, indicating that employment has remained steady.

However, the long-term picture is still opaque due to increases in layoffs. The 6-month rolling total of announced layoffs is nearing 700,000, a level only surpassed during major downturns such as the 2001 dot-com crash, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2020 global pandemic. While the current job creation pace suggests underlying strength in sectors like services and public employment, the layoff numbers could reflect signs of pressure in private industries.

As we move into the second half of the year, policymakers will be watching closely to see if consumer spending and hiring can hold up against economic headwinds and rising corporate caution. The Fed will likely view June’s job gains and falling unemployment as a reason to remain cautious about cutting rates too quickly. Although broader economic data might suggest differently.